Tag: England v West Indies

Can England Still Win The Test Match?

My thoughts on the current test match and possible scenarios for what remains of it, plus a couple of bonus links and some photographs.

INTRODUCTION

The lunch interval on day4 of the second test match at Old Trafford is nearing its end, so what are the propsects?

THE STORY SO FAR

Yesterday was entirely lost to the weather, meaning that the West Indies started today 32-1 in reply to England’s 469-9 declared. The morning session has been much better for them than for England, with only nightwatchman Alzarri Joseph dismissed, a wicket for Dom Bess. Kraigg Brathwaite and Shai Hope are currently together with the score 118-2. Can England win this match and keep the Wisden Trophy alive?

POTENTIAL WINNING SCENARIOS

I see three potential winning scenarios, each of which has two subvariations. They are as follows:

1. England bowl the West Indies out for 269 or less, which is still possible although the likelihood is receding. Then either a)England enforce follow-on, bowl West Indies out cheaply and win by an innings margin, b)England enforce follow on, bowl West Indies out and have a small run chase in the final innings c)if England really are determined to give their bowlers a short rest between bowling stints they bat for 10 or 15 overs taking an ‘all guns blazing approach’ and then get the West Indies in again and bowl them out to win by a runs margin.

2. England bowl the West Indies out for 270-319, definitely a possibility. Then either a)England forfeit their second innings in and all or nothing gamble on victory and bowl the West Indies out to win the match.
b)England go in again taking the ‘all guns blazing’ approach and declare giving the West Indies a tough but achievable chase (they need to dangle a carrot otherwise the West Indies simply shut up shop and secure the Wisden Trophy) and manage to bowl the West Indies out a second time.

3. England bowl the West Indies for a total in excess of 320, but still with a useful lead for England, and England go all out for quick runs, either being bowled out or declaring to set the West Indies a tough but achievable target, and bowl the West Indies out.

IF ENGLAND HAVE TO BAT AGAIN

If it is for a very straightforward run chase with no major acceleration needed then no change is needed to the batting order. In any other scenario (i.e. runs needed at speed) I would hold Sibley, Burns and Craw;ey back for emergencies and send Stokes and Buttler into open with instructions to treat it as a T20 innings, with Pope coming at three, Woakes four, Curran five, Bess six, Root 7, and only if all of these are out cheaply enough for England to be in danger of defeat turn to the regular nos 1-3 to shut up shop. In a quick runs for a declaration scenario where I thought a couple more overs batting would be beneficial I would even take this further should the situation arise and promote Broad to have a swing. I would also say that although I have allowed for the possibility of not enforcing the follow-on I reckon that England should do so unless they can boost thei lead by enough quickly enough to get the West Indies in again by tomorrow morning at the latest.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE THIRD MATCH

I am reckoning that Anderson and Wood will return, Archer will be considered but may not play. Also, in view of the turn that Bess is extracting I would consider picking Parkinson and gambling on two specialist pacers plus Stokes to handle that side of things. As I write this Sam Curran has just claimed the third West Indies wicket to make it 123-3, and he has two of them. A possible ‘gamblers pick’ for the third test would be give Pope the gauntlets and keep him at no6, and then five regular bowlers, Curran, Bess, Archer, Wood and Anderson, or the two-spinner ‘gamblers pick’ which is similar except Parkinson replaces Wood, meaning a one place promotion for Anderson (Parkinson is a genuine no11). England have played well this match, and I suspect that if they do manage to win it they will take the series. An England win to level the series would be good for cricket, creating a winner-takes-all scenario for the final game. So to, though it is a remote possibility, would a win for the West Indies, giving them their first series win in England since 1988, albeit in a different way. A drawn match has little to commend it, since the West Indies would then be thinking very much in terms of avoiding defeat in the final match and thereby winning the series (a draw when 0-2 down could not benefit England, whereas a win would at least salvage some pride).

LINKS AND PHOTOGRAPHS

Two related pieces here:

  1. Molly Scott Cato, professor of economics and one of the leading lights of the Green Party, has a piece at theecologist.org titled “If Humanity Counted“.
  2. Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK has set out some brief thoughts on Modern Monetary Theory – the first three are screenshotted below.
    MMT Thread

Now it is time for my usual sign off…

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Bowl First Backfiring on West Indies

An update on the test match, as England assume control through Sibley and Stokes.

INTRODUCTION

Unlike yesterday, today is bright and sunny, and it looks like being a full day’s play in Manchester. This post looks at events so far.

THE MATCH

When skipper Root was dismissed the score was 81-3, and the West Indies only needed a couple more wickets to be on top. Stokes then joined Sibley and they knuckled down to the job in hand. Sibley received a let off with 68 to his name, but he and Stokes held the fort through to the close of a truncated day with England 207-3 from 82 overs. Bizarrely, having declined to take the new ball when it fell due yesterday the West Indies then failed to take it first thing this morning, instead bowling 11 overs at England with the old ball, which allowed Stokes and Sibley to play themselves in. Sibley reached his hundred just before lunch, from the 312th ball he had received, while Stokes reached the interval on 99. Stokes completed his ton straight after the interval, his 10th test century, and the slowest to date, but exactly the innings England had needed. As I write this the West Indies have just burned off a review of an LBW, reducing them to one left. England are 278-3 and looking in control of the match. England will be looking to increase the scoring rate as the prospect of trouble recedes. Pope is in at the fall of the next wicket, and then Buttler, who really needs to take full advantage of the situation and the tired bowlers.

WEST INDIES WOES

The West Indies chose to bowl yesterday, paying too much attention to the grey skies and not enough to the very flat looking pitch. They have failed to distinguish themselves with the ball. Shannon Gabriel has been fortunate not to be called for wides, but has bowled at least three in the ‘Harmy’ bracket. Alzarri Joseph has a wicket but has hardly been stellar. Roach has bowled well but carried no huge threat. Holder has posed little threat. Roston Chase has two of the wickets but is being used as a part timer – he was given the last over before lunch having not been called on all morning. Stokes has just hit the second six of the match (both to his credit), as he looks to up the pace. It is hard to see any way back for the West Indies, especially given that Bess should enjoy bowling on this surface. Each morning so far has seen a dreadful decision by the West Indies – putting England in yesterday on an obvious flat pitch and not taking the new ball instantly this morning, and they are being made to pay a heavy price for both infractions.

LOOKING AHEAD

This is the third test match of the 21st century in which an England batter has needed over 300 balls to reach a century, the other two being scored by Mike Atherton and Nasser Hussain, and England won both those games. Additionally this is Sibley’s second test hundred, and England won the other game in which he reached three figures, with Stokes making a substantial contribution there as well. In 1956 at this ground England made 459 in the first innings with centuries for Peter Richardson and David Sheppard, and won the game by an innings and 170 runs, with an off spinner, Jim Laker, doing most of the damage with the ball. The 300 has just come up for England, with Sibley and Stokes still in possession, and Stokes having just moved ahead of Sibley.

PHOTOGRAPHS

My usual sign off:

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