How My Predictions Panned Out

A look at my predictions in yesterday’s Royal London Cup matches, some important links and some of my photographs.

INTRODUCTION

In yesterday’s post I ventured predictions on the outcomes of the five Royal London Cup matches that had reached their half way stage at the time I was posting. Today, with the next Royal London Cup fixtures taking place tomorrow I am going to use the main body of this post to reveal the actual outcomes of yesterday’s matches.

PREDICTION VERSUS FACT – HOW I DID

Some people (especially fans of whyevolutionsistrue) will recognize that this section heading is a riff on the title of Jerry Coyne’s second popular bestseller, Faith Versus Fact. I will start with the two matches I called incorrectly:

Gloucestershire v Surrey – Gloucestershire 235, Surrey 88, Gloucestershire won by 147 runs
An unconscionable collapse by Surrey. The two bowlers who did the principal damage, slow left-armer Tom Smith with 3-7 and medium pacer Chris Liddle with 3-17 do not have overall records that suggest them to be destroyers, so it is hard to understand how Surrey who appeared to have done the hard work by restricting their oppponents to 235 could make such an almighty hash of their own of batting.

Essex v GlamorganEssex 326-7, Glamorgan 146, Essex won by 180 runs
I made my prediction for this one based on the ridiculous scoring that had happened during the championship game at Cardiff a few days earlier. Unfortunately, having demonstrated in that one that they cannot bowl or catch, Glamorgan this time showed that they cannot handle pressure, with only a late 36 from Marchant de Lange reducing the margin to under 200 runs (he came in at 82-7). Siddle and Bopara did good work with the ball for Essex.

Now for the ones I called correctly:

Durham v NorthamptonshireDurham 342-5, Northamptonshire 270
A comfortable enough win, although one of the less one-sided results of the day. Jason Holder (86) and Alex Wakely (66)_batted fairly well, but no one else did. For Durham 20 year old medium pacer Matty Potts took 4-62, 26 year old medium-fast bowler Matt Salisbury 3-51 and 19 year old slow left armer Liam Trevaskis partially redeemed himself for his blob with 2-65. 

Yorkshire v Leicestershire Yorkshire 379-7, Leciestershire 166
An obvious call, but not even I was expecting the final result to be this much of a thrashing. Four of Leciestershire’s batters got into the twenties, but the highest score for them was Cosgroves 42. South African born fast bowler Matt Pillans took 5-29, England left-arm medium pacer David Willey had 2-26 and legspinner Josh Poysden took 2-26 to outshine England man Adil Rashid who went wicketless.

Lancashire v WorcestershireWorcestershire 367, Lancashire 242
Even more one-sided than the final margin suggests, given that Lancashire were 191-8 at one point – a tail wag from Steven Croft (32 not out), Jimmy Anderson (4) and Matthew Parkinson (10) assisted them. The real batters failed to provide a single really major innings between them – five of the top six got into the twenties, but the top score was a mere 54, from (I hope) ex-England man Keaton Jennings. The wickets were widely shared around, with no one having outstanding bowling figures.

That leaves the match that I did not call as it was too early, which was:

Kent v HampshireHampshire 310-9, Kent 220
While saying it was too early to attempt to call this one I also said that if Hampshire could get up around the 300 mark I would make them favourites, while if Kent held them to about 250 I would make them favourites. The first scenario happened, and Hampshire duly won, but there is no way be sure (especially given that every side that batted first won on the day, and that batting first tends to be even more advantageous when floodlights come into play) that Kent would have been successful chasing the lower total. Therefore I do not claim this as a correct call but also do not accept it as a wrong call – I said it was too early to call, and I hold to that. For Hampshire Sam Northeast (ex of Kent) scored 105 not out, while List A debutant Matt Milnes took 5-79 for Kent. For Kent Zak Crawley top scored with 49, while the margin was reduced to double figures rather than treble by the lower-order efforts of Stevens (30), Podmore (40) and Milnes (26). Chris Wood, Kyle Abbott and bits ‘n’pieces man Liam Dawson each took two wickets.

Thus I was right with three predictions out of five. These results demosntrate the danger of formulaic thinking – many one-day captains on winning the toss put their opponents in without even thinking about it, but every single team who batted first on this day ended up victorious.

LINKS AND PICTURES

First, a teaser from brilliant, although I make it more difficult than they did by removing the multi-choice element:

piechart

To lead into my usual sign off we have a selection of closely related pieces, starting with two from Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK

I do not often link to Newspaper front pages, but this from the Mirror, which I saw by way of twitter (which I have formatted as a link so that you can read the article) had to be included.

Mirror

Finally, for those of my readers who are UK Citizens there is a petition about this issue on the official government petitions site, which I urge you to join me in signing and sharing – screenshot/link below:

Rewilding petition

Now for today’s photographs:

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A preview of my birthday present – on display in the shop. It has a terabyte of storage.

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Good to see a polinator at work.
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This creature appears to be missing a leg – I see only seven and it sjurely have eight.
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A closer-up shot.

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Scotland – A Scenic Journey 1: Plockton to Strome Castle

Continuing the account my Scottish holiday – this post covers Plockton to Castle Strome.

INTRODUCTION

We are continuing with stuff from the Wednesday of my Scottish holiday. The second part of our itinerary for the day involved visiting the village of Applecross, which entailed a very scenic journey that I have split into two parts, using the brief diversion to Strome Castle as a natural divider. 

ON THE ROAD

The road out from Plockton follows the shore of Loch Carron pretty closely for the first part of the journey. Loch Carron, like Loch Alsh is a sea loch (readers familiar with Norway should think ‘fjord’ – the Scottish sea lochs were created by the same geological phenomenon as the fjords). Not withstanding the limitations imposed by having to shoot through the window of a moving vehicle I kept the camera busy:

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The end of the road
This road won’t be extended any time soon!

STROME CASTLE

This ruined castle is well worth the detour if you are heading towards Applecross. Here are the pictures:

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A Couple of Important Nature Links

Links an important petition and an important thunderclap. A couple of other nature related links, a classic nature related meme and some of my own photographs.

INTRODUCTION

A couple of big things to do with nature came to my attention today and I have decided to share them with you. In addition to the two major links there will be some of my own thoughts, a nod in the direction of New Zealand and some appropriate photographs of my own. As you will have noticed by now, the text in this post is green, and that is because it is a post entirely dedicated to nature. Links in the text will in bold and underlined, while images relating to other posts will also be formatted as links.

THOUGHTS ON NATURE

My own interest in the natural world and concern for nature are both lifelong. I literally cannot remember a time when these attributes were not part of me. Although I grew up in London I had a common practically on my doorstep, lots of natural history books, and of course being in London meant I was within easy travelling distance of the museums at South Kensington. In my childhood the Geological and Natural History museums were two separate entities, though they have long since been amalgamated into one museum, the Natural History Museum. Therefore you can imagine my reaction when I saw something on twitter about…

A GCSE IN NATURAL HISTORY

A petition on the official site created for petitions addressed to the UK parliament to create a Natural History GCSE has been launched. This means that it is only open to those among my readers who are UK citizens to sign, which I regret, but you can still view this petition (there is a screenshot below to whet the appetite) even if you are not a UK citizens. UK citizens please sign and share.
NH GCSE

My next major link is to a…

THUNDERCLAP

To be part of a thunderclap you have to be on some form of social media (facebook, twitter or tumblr to be precise). This particular thunderclap is about the importance of pollinators and the fact that scientists have established that birds as well as bees are pesticide victims. If you are able to add your voice to this thunderclap please do so. Below is a screenshot for further clarification.

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Yes, this thunderclap is well ahead of target, as it should be, but just as the importance of pollinators cannot be overstated, so this thunderclap cannot ever be said to be over-supported. 

A COUPLE OF FURTHER LINKS

Miles King over at anewnatureblog has today produced a splendid piece titled “Time to rename Defra the Ministry of Agriculture and Fieldsports” in which he reveals the extent to which our government is failing in its duties as regards the environment. Below is a screenshot of the section of the post dealing with the downright dishonourable Andrea Leadsom by way of introduction.

ALfail

Now it is time for…

A NOD TO NEW ZEALAND

Jerry Coyne, author of the books “Why Evolution Is True” and “Faith Versus Fact”, and who also runs a blog named after the first of those books is currently in New Zealand, and it is from there that this wonderful picture (click on it to view it in its original econiche) comes:

It is nearly time for some of my own photos, taken yesterday and today, but for the penultimate section of the post I share once again…

ANNA’S NATURE MEME

This wonderful creation was formed around words that were originally submitted by me as a comment on one of her blog posts.
Nature Meme

PHOTOGRAPHS

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