How Yesterday’s Predictions Fared and Predictions For Today

How yesterday’s predictions fared, some predicitons for today’s Royal London Cup action and a couple of other features.

INTRODUCTION

Yesterday due to timing issues I posted predictions about the outcomes of that days Royal London Cup matches before they took place. This post shows how those predictions panned out and provides predictions for today’s two matches, with one at the half-way stage and the other heavily weather affected. There are also a few other things included.

HOW YESTERDAY’S PREDICTIONS FARED

Here match by match is what happened yesterday:

Somerset v Sussex – Somerset 282-8 from 50 overs, Sussex 62-4 from 16.3 overs, Somerset win by 69 runs on the Duckworth-Lewis method
The Duckworth-Lewis method, now administered by a man named Stern, its two progenitors having retired, is the best method for resolving rain spoiled fixtures yet devised – a predecessor led to England and South Africa retaking the field when the calculation reduced South Africa’s task to 22 off one ball! There is no doubt that having lost four early wickets Sussex were heading for defeat even had the rain not intervened. Coimpetition rules require each side to have batted for at least 10 overs for the game to be considered completed. For Somerset Hildreth scored 81, Azhar Ali had his first decent performance as overseas player with 68 and Lewis Gregory hit 50 off 28 balls near the end. Mir Hamza took three wickets for Sussex and Chris Jordan two. Sussex had lost the top four in their order when the rain came, with the wickets going to Overton, Davey, Groenewald and Gregory. A correct prediction for me.
Leicestershire v Derbyshire – Leicestershire 312-8 (50 overs), Derbyshire 266-3 off 39 overs, Derbyshire won by seven wickets off the last possible ball.
Again a bit of rain meant that the Duckowrth-Lewis formula came into play. In the end Derbyshire needed eight of the final over and nearly made a pig’s ear of it. Ackerman made 119 for Leicestershire, while the wickets were widely shared. Billy Godleman made 106 for Derbyshire, guiding them almost to victory, Du Plooy was 73 not out and Madsen made 60. This was an incorrect prediction.
Lancashire v Northamptonshire – Northamptonshire 269 all out from 50 overs, Lanashire 164-2 from 28.4 overs, Lancashire won by eight wickets under the Duckworth/Lewis method.
Lancashire were motoring ahead of the required rate when the rain intervened, and quite rightly the calculation showed as much, earning them the win and me a second correct prediction out of three. Jason Holder made 72 for Northamptonshire, Rob Keogh 66 and Vasconcelos 50, while all else in this innings was overshadowed by the bowling of Saqib Mohamed who took 6-37. For Lancashire Haseeb Hameed made 65 and Keaton Jennings 63.
Worcestershire v Durham – Durham 114-4 from 27.2 overs, Worcestershire 152-6 from 22.2 overs, Worcestershire won four wickets with 10 balls to spare under the Duckworth-Lewis Method.
The fact that Worcestershire knew from the start that their innings would be truncated and Durham did not explains why they were required to chase more than Durham had scored, and the fact that Durham had lost four wickets explains why the differential was not even greater. Alex Lees made 52 not out for Durham, while no Worcestershire bowler took more than one wicket. Four Worcestershire players scored over 25, although the top score was a mere 33 by Hamish Rutherford. For Durham Carse, Salisbury and Raine each took two wickets. I called this one correctly.

Thus I was right with three predictions and wrong with one, making a fifth Royal London Cup match day out of five on which I have got more right than wrong, and taking my overall record to 19 right out of 27, a strike rate of 70.03% (70.027…%, rounds up to 70.03).

TODAY’S PREDICTIONS

There are only two matches taking place:

Middlesex v Surrey – Middlesex 277 all out from 50 overs
The last two wickets boosted the Middlesex total, with Toby Roland-Jones finishing with 45, second top score to Ross Taylor’s 64. The bowling star was veteran off-spinner Gareth Batty with 4-29. Middlesex’s total is respectable but I am predicting that Surrey will chase them down.
Glamorgan v Kent – Glamorgan 68-2 from 15 overs, raining at present.
If the rain relents sufficiently to allow a result this match will go a long way to settling who gets the wooden spoon from the South Group, as both these teams currently have 100% losing records. Looking at Glamorgan’s current score my reckoning is that Kent are currently second favourites to the weather to emerge with the spoils. Wicketkeeper Chris Cooke is 29 not out and Labuschagne made 27, while Klaasen and Podmore each have a wicket.

A SCOPE EVENT

Scope had a get together at the West Norfolk Deaf Centre on Railway Road, and I was one of three members of the NAS West Norfolk Committee in attendance. It was a thoroughly enjoyable session, and we raised the issue of Scope helping us to get music sessions running again. With the help of Scope it will be a possibility. We also took part in some of the activities that were made available for us on the day. I have a few photographs to share…

P1230246 — Three pictures from around the room.

P1230256 — I did not find out who had created this, but it is good quality.

P1230259 — A ‘Sudbury Town’ type building with a wind turbine to meet ir’s power needs.

ANNUAL HEALTH CHECKS FOR AUTISTIC PEOPLE

This is an idea being pushed by NAS at a national level. As someone who is autistic and who has had a very difficult time recently due a health issue not being picked up until far too late I want to be involved with this, and to turn my experience to good use. There is information in earlier blog posts that NAS are welcome to use, and I am considering further options for working with NAS on this.

PHOTOGRAPHS

My usual sign off…

Clean Sweep of Predictions Yesterday and Predictions For Today

The outcome of yesterday’s predcitions (100% success!) and some predictions for today because I will be out at my usual time for making them.

INTRODUCTION

Because of the fact that I am seeing my team at Addenbrookes later today and will not be back until well into the second innings of today’s Royal London Cup fixtures this is a combined feedback and predictions post – I chose the bold option of predicting based solely on form in the competition so far rather than the cautious one of not predicting at all.

YESTERDAY’S PREDICTIONS – A TALE OF SUCCESS

Surrey v Essex – Surrey 278-8 from 50 overs, Essex 213 all out from 42.5 overs, Surrey won by 65 runs
When Dan Lawrence and Ravi Bopara were enjoying a good stand it looked like Essex may chase these down, but they fell in very quick succession, followed also by wicketkeeper Robbie White. Ryan Ten Doeschate, a fine player, but with his 39th birthday approaching now no longer quite the force he was did his best to rally the lower order, but it was not enough. Morne Morkel took 4-23 for Surrey and Liam Plunkett 4-50. Will Jacks was not able to emulate Lawrence by bowling his full allocation – he finished with 1-39 from six overs.

Hampshire v Middlesex – Hampshire 301-9 from 50 overs, Middlesex 182 all out from 35.4 overs, Hampshire won by 119 runs.
Hampshire had a big finish to their innings, which induced me to call this one in their favour. However, I was not expecting quite such a pathetic batting effort from Middlesex. No Middlesex batter made a significant contribution, with 41 from Eoin Morgan their top score. South African Aidan Markram followed his fine batting with 3-39, and renegade South African Kyle Abbott spearheaded the bowling with 3-36.

Gloucestershire v Kent – Kent 282-8 from 50 overs, Gloucestershire 283-4 from 46.5 overs, Gloucestershire won by six wickets with 3.1 overs to spare.
I did not think that Kent had the bowling to defend a so-so total and I was proven right. Gloucestershire wicketkeeper Gareth Roderick led the way and deservedly completed a century at the moment of victory, finishing 100 not out. James Bracey made 67. None of the Kent bowlers produced figures that merit quoting here.

Warwickshire v Nottinghamshire – Nottinghamshire 301-9 from 50 overs, Warwickshire 183 all out from 37.5 overs. Nottinghamshire won by 118 runs.
Another very one-sided match, with Warwickshire failing miserably to respond to Nottinghamshire’s fine batting effort. Among the wreckage 19 year-old Liam Banks scored 57 and Alex Thomson managed 55, but they only delayed the inevitable, though Banks at least is a hope for the future. Opening bowlers Luke Fletcher and Matthew Carter (a 22 year old off-spinner – Notts did something different with the new ball) each took three wickets, and James Pattinson and Samit Patel weighed in with two each.

Four correct predicitions out of four, putting on me on 16 correct out of 23 overall – a strike rate at the moment of 69.57% (69.565 to three dp, and that third decimal being a five or higher it gets rounded up when giving the figure to two dp).

PREDICTIONS FOR TODAY

Sussex v Somerset – I reckon that Somerset will draw strength from having hung on against Glamorgan when the Welsh county nearly snatched victory from the jaws of defeat. Their bowling looks especially impressive, and I back them to win this one, though Sussex will probably push them close.

Leicestershire v Derbyshire – Leicestershire have been good so far, Derbyshire not so good, and Leicestershire have home advantage. Thus I call this one as win for Leicestershire, and expect them to have something to spare over their opponents.

Lancashire v Northamptonshire – Both teams have fared reasonably well so far. Lancashire have home advantage, and have the additional boost of their dramatic roses match triumph. Thus I call this one in Lancashire’s favour.

Worcestershire v Durham – With home advantage I expect Worcestershire to win this one (especially if they manage to find a way of dismissing Bancroft) although they were well beaten last time out.

PHOTOGRAPHS

My regular sign off…

P1230170 — The only publicity I have received about the upcoming local elections (two images) – given the paucity of choice I was going to vote for these candidates anyway.

P1230183 — even feral creatures use recognized modes of egress!

The Royal London Cup Half Way Predictions IV

Predictions at the half way stage of todays Royal London Cup matches, some links and plenty of my photographs.

INTRODUCTION

There are four matches taking place in the Royal London Cup today, which means that even if all of my predictions turn out incorrect I will still have more right than wrong at the end of it, as I am currently on 12 out of 19.

THE ROYAL LONDON CUP TODAY

This is what is happening so far…

Surrey v Essex – Surrey 278-8 50 overs
At 220-3 in the 42nd over Surrey would have been entertaining hopes of getting close to 300. At 241-8 Essex would have been hoping to restrict Surrey to no more than 260. In the end the difference was almost exactly split, thanks to some late hitting from Jason Roy who had suffered a back spasm earlier in the day. Ben Foakes top scored for Surrey with 82. Sam Cook took 3-37 from eight overs, Dan Lawrence bowled his full allocation of 10 and took 2-52 – Surrey will be hoping for something similar from their nearest equjivalent, Will Jacks. I predict that Surrey will defend this total.
Hampshire v Middlesex – Hampshire 301-9 from 50 overs
Until the last over Middlesex were faring quite well in this one, buit topping 300 is big psychological boost for Hampshire, albeit that 300 is not the mountainous total it once was in this form of the game. A South African, Aidan Markram, top scored with 88 and a renegade South African, Rilee Rossouw made 64. Tom Helm, right-arm medium fast took five wickets but was made to pay for them (71 in nine overs). I expect Hampshire, with their bowling spearheaded by another renegade South African, Kyle Abbott, to defend this one.
Gloucestershire v Kent – Kent 282-8 from 50 overs
The early stages of the Kent innings saw Zak Crawley make 85 and Joe Denly 56. At the end Harare born wicketkeeper Adam Rouse hit 45 not out off 28 balls to boost the total. Benny Howell took 2-39 from his 10 overs, 28 year old right-arm fast medium bowler David Payne had 2-45 and slow left-armer Tom Smith had 2-47 from seven overs. I expect Gloucestershire to chase these down – Kent look to me like they are a trifle short of bowling options (they will almost certainly need Denly to bowl his full ten overs).
Warwickshire v Nottinghamshire – Nottinghamshire 301-9 from 50 overs
A decent total for Nottinghamshire, Ben Slater making exactly 100, skipper Mullaney 40 and Luke Fletcher and James Pattinson 33 and 32 at the end. Jeetan Patel collected 5-45, George Panayi, a 21 year old right arm fast medium bowler took 2-44. Henry Brookes had an off day today, finishing with 1-78 fron nine overs. I expect Nottinghamshire to defend this total.

Thus my predictions, with varying degrees of confidence, are: Surrey, Hampshire, Gloucestershire and Nottinghamshire.

PHYSIO SESSION AT TAPPING HOUSE

Today I attended my second full physio session at The Norfolk Hospice, Tapping House. The exercises I did today as part of my recovery from cancer include a stair exercise, an arm exercise involving weights, three minutes on the treadmill, a set of arm exercises involving a punching action and three minutes on the bicycle simulator (I was particularly pleased with this one, since I managed to average 26kph, or approx 16mph over the three minutes). While there I also augmented my photo collection:

LINKS AND PICTURES

First three related pieces. Richard Murphy has added two more to his Taxes To Save the Environment (Taste):

A Carbon Usage Tax
A Land Value Tax With A Woodland Twist

There is also a piece on devonlive, which I was found by way of twitter headlined “Shock and anger as entire Devon woodland is chopped down“. The piece makes clear that not only had planning permission for this atrocity not been granted, the arrogant and unscrupulous developer had not even bothered to seek it. My own opinion is this developer should be punished by both a hefty fine upfront and by being made to replant the woodland at his own expense. My hope would be the combined expense of these two would put him in serious financial difficulties to teach him a lesson.

Now for my usual sign off…

P1230100 — I think the tiny bird featured in this picture and the next is a house sparrow – but I have not yet got a picture of it from a really good angle so I cannot be absolutely certain.

How My Latest Predictions Fared

Accounts of the final outcomes of yesterday’s Royal London Cup matches, including details of how my latest set of predictions worked out. Also features a couple of twitter finds and some of my photographs.

INTRODUCTION

At the halfway stage of yesterday’s Royal London Cup fixtures, in accordance with what is now my custom I ventured a set of predictions as to the outcomes. Now I reveal how they fared.

THE OUTCOMES MATCH BY MATCH

Northamptonshire v Warwickshire – Northamptonshire 358-6, Warwickshire 164, Northamptonshire won by 194 runs.
I called this as a Northamptonshire win and was proven correct. The sheer size of the win was a bit of a surprise. Ed Pollock and Alex Thomson joint top-scored for Warwickshire with 36 a piece, while Blessing Muzurabani, Ben Sanderson and Jason Holder each picked uo three wickets for Northamptonshire.

Glamorgan v Somerset – Somerset 261-9, Glamorgan 259, Somerset won by 2 runs.
For the second time in a row Craig Overton followed useful late runs (crucial in this case) with early wickets. When Glamorgan were 41-6 it seemed to be all over, but then David Lloyd (84) and Graham Wagg (62) put on 152 to drag their side back into it. At 202-9 Somerset again looked like winners, but then Glamorgan rallied through their last pair, Lucas Carey and Dutchman Timm Van Der Gugten, who looked to have snatched the game for their side until Carey holed out for 39 to end things with Glamorgan two runs adrift. I had called this as a Somerset win, and I was just proven right. It was an absolute classic match, and credit to Glamorgan for their incredible fight back from 41-6, from where a margin of 200 looked likelier than the eventual two! Scottish medium pacer Josh Davey had a List A best 4-36, Overton (surely player of the match) had 3-51 to go with his priceless 41 not out and Dutchman Roelof Van Der Merwe had 2-36 from 5.1 overs, snaring the final wicket.

Kent v Sussex – Kent 298, Sussex 302-3 (40 overs) – Sussex won by seven wickets with 10 overs to spare.
I got this one wrong – I had called it as a Kent win. The match was won for Sussex by two men, north Wales born Philip Salt (137 not out off 106 balls, he now has 422 list A runs at 42.20 and a strike rate of 108.20 in that form of the game – clearly one to watch for the future, as he is only just 22) and Hastings born Harry Finch (89 off 68 balls, he now has 1,056 list A runs at 42.24 and a strike rate of 78.57 in that form, and is 24 years old). For Kent Matt Milnes took two wickets but also got carted – 73 off nine overs, while wily old Darren Stevens had 1-34 from eight overs.

Leciestershire v Worcestershire – Leicestershire 377-4 from 50 overs, Worcestershire 339 from 46.2 overs, Leicestershire won by 38 runs.
Worcetsreshire fought gamely in the face of a huge total but never managed at any stage to get on terms with the task. 131 from Ross Whiteley was the main contribution, and he was supported by Brett D’Oliveira (grandson of Basil, son of Damian, 57) and Ed Barnard (61). Dieter Klein took 4-72 and Claude Ackerman 3-55 to follow his mighty innings. A correct prediction from me.

Gloucestershire v Middlesex – Gloucestershire 283-7, Middlesex 287-4 from 42.2 overs, Middlesex won by six wickets with 7.4 overs to spare.
I called this one incorrectly, backing Gloucestershire to defend. When the Middlesex score was 103-4 this one was looking fairly good for me, but Steve Eskinazi (107 not out) and Nick Gubbins (98 not out) saw their side to what was in the end a very comfortable victory. Australian seamer Daniel Worrall took 2-30 from six overs, but no one else did anything of significance with the ball.

Yorkshire v Lancashire – Lancashire 311-6, Yorkshire 310 all out (50 overs exactly) Lancashire won by one run.
Having had a tie in their last game, Yorkshire lost this one by a single run, suffering two run outs at the end to settle it. Tom Kohler-Cadmore scored 97 off 113 balls, Gary Ballance 72 off 64, and Johnny Tattersall 49 off 29 to bring his side very close to the line before being run out. Saqib Mahmood took 3-76 and bowled the crucial final over, legspinner Matt Parkinson took 2-47 from his 10 (a key performance in so close and high scoring a match) and there was a wicket a piece for Graham Onions, Glen Maxwell and Liam Hurt (so new on the scene that his profile is very sketchy – his date of birth is not recorded, not what hand he bats with, nor what style of bowler he is, and given that he too was economical for such a high scooring game – 42 runs off eight overs, this could be the first sighting of future star). I had called this one as Yorkshire win, and a single run saved my bacon and extended my record of calling more correctly than wrongly to a third round of this competition.

Derbyshire v Nottinghamshire – Derbyshire 297-8, Nottinghamshire 299-4 (45.1 overs) Nottinghamshire won by six wickets with 4.5 overs to spare.
I had expected Derbyshire to defend their 297-8, but in the end Nottinghamshire were comfortable winners. Ben Slater made 83 off 100 balls, and then from 173-4 Tom Moores hit 52 not out off 46 balls and skipper Steven Mullaney 68 not out off 47 balls to carry Nottinghamshire to victory. Alfie Gleadall, whose date of birth like that of Liam Hurt is shown as ‘unknown’, but who I can reveal to be left handed batter and right-arm medium fast bowler took 3-43 from seven overs, and no other Derbyshire bowler deserves to have their figures quoted.

Thus I was right with four of my predictions and wrong with three, making my overall tally thus far 12 right and seven wrong, a success rate of 63.16% (63.15789 to five decimal places, they key being that the third decimal is a 7, i..e 5 or greater, so we round up), and I have had more right than wrong on all three occasions I have done this so far, though this time that was only just the case.

LINKS AND PICTURES

We start with a basic primer on climate science from Parents for Future SE:

My second offering comes from Election Maps UK and shows what our House of Commons would look like under PR:

I have two elections coming up, a local council election in which the four candidates are two Labour and two Tory, meaning that I will vote Labour. I do not yet know who all the candidates in the European election on May 22 are, but if there is a Green to vote for in that I will vote for them. In a general election under our current deeply flawed system, given the nature of my constituency I would have to vote Labour, as only Labour have anything approaching the support base needed to unseat the sitting Tory MP – whereas under PR I would be voting Green.

Now we have my regular sign off…

The Royal London Cup Round 3 Predictions

Accounts of goings on in today’s Royal London Cup matches including predictiuons, a few links and some photographs.

INTRODUCTION

All seven of today’s Royal London Cup matches have reached the half way stage, and as with first two rounds (see here and here) I will be venturing predictions as to the eventual outcomes of the matches and mentioning noteworthy performances.

THE ROYAL LONDON CUP MATCHES 21/4

Here we go…

Northamptonshire v Warwickshire – Northamptonshire 358-9 from 50 overs
A big total for Northamptonshire, and one that I would expect them to defend. Nobody made a really big score for Northants, but Keogh (69 off 87), Rossington (68 off 58), Holder (60 not out off 31), Wakely (50 off 50) and Levi (48 off 37) all contributed. Henry Brookes continued his good start to the season with another three wickets, albeit at a considerable cost (3-80 off 10), while Jeetan Patel was the most economical bowler with 2-55 off 10.
Glamorgan v Somerset – Somerset 261-9 from 50 overs
The Somerset total is by means huge, but it represents a recovery from 178-8 at low water mark, and Glamorgan made a horrible hash of each of their first two games after seemingly being in contention at the halfway point, so I am confidently predicting a Somerset win. Veteran James Hildreth top scored with 67, while Craig Overton spearheaded the recover with 41 not out off 46 balls at the end. De Lange and Labuschagne each took three wickets for Glamorgan.
Kent v Sussex – Kent 298 all out 49.4 overs
An intriguing one. Aussie Matt Renshaw scored 109 for Kent, while Ollie Robinson was second top scorer wirh 46 and both openers made 30, and there was a late 32 from Harry Podmore which could prove crucial. Left arm quick George Garton took 3-42 from 8 overs and the two spinners Briggs (SLA, like his legendary namesake of yesteryear Johnny) and Will Beer (legbreak) each picked up a couple of wickets. I will predict Kent to defend this one.
Leicestershire v Worcestershire – Leciestershire 377-4 from 50 overs
A very fine score by Leicestershire, and I fully expect them to defend it – Lancashire’s effort the other day notwithstanding totals this large are rarely chased down even nowadays. Ackerman made 152 not out off 143 balls for Leicestershire, wicketkeeper Lewis Hill scored 118 off 62 balls and Harry Dearden 91 off 92 balls at the top of the order. Charlie Morris and Josh Tongue each took two wickets, apart from which it is best to draw a veil over the Worcestershire bowling figures.
Middlesex v Gloucestershire – Gloucestershire 283-7 from 50 overs
A decent total for Gloucestershire, but these days by no means a certainty for them to defend. Nonetheless I predict that the county of my birth will get the better of the Londoners, although this is the call I am least confident of. James Bracey madce 83 and Benny Howell 55. Toby Roland-Jones who has played with some success for England took two wickets as did Ireland star Tim Murtagh.
Yorkshire v Lancashire – Lancashire 311-7 from 50 overs
A good total for Lancashire, and given the success of teams batting first so far this season it will probably be enough for them in this roses clash. Steven Croft top scored with 97 off 117 balls, Rob Jones made 65 off 51 balls and Josh Bohannon scored 55 not out off 32 at the end. David Willey took 2-51 from his 10 overs.
Derbyshire v Nottinghamshire – Derbyshire 297-8 from 50 overs
A decent looking total from Derbyshire, but given the score that Nottinghamshire produced last time out I am backing them to chase it down. Billy Godleman scored 116 off 148 balls to anchor the Derbyshire effort, Luis Reece hit 88 off 82 balls, Wayne Madsen scored 38 off 28 balls, and there were no other significant contributions. Luke Fletcher took 5-56 and Jake Ball 2-55.

Thus my predictions are: Northamptonshire, Somerset, Kent, Leicestershire, Gloucestershire, Lancashire and Nottinghamshire. I am listening to the commentary on the match between Glamorgan and Somerset, and Glamorgan have responded to the challenge of chasing 262 for victory by slumping to 31-5 in tne ninth over. Four of the five batters dismissed in this pathetic reply were punished for playing straight balls with pad rather than bat. Overton and Scottish medium pacer Josh Davey have been doing the damage.

LINKS AND PICTURES

Three days ago I set the following challenge from brilliant.org:

Here is a published solution, produced by Mitchell Newman:

A collection of good pieces from Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK:

A picture and two links from the weownit campaign:

Public Ownership Works
Worldwide Public Ownership Stories

My usual sign off…

P1220990 — Got a couple of good shots of a muntjac this morning.

P1230015 — My aunt bought some ladybird larvae to deal with greenfly and they are doing a splendid job.

P1230016 — a wild ladybird just outside my bungalow.

How My Second Set of Predictions Fared

A look at the conclusions of yesterday’s Royal London Cup matches and an analysis of my predictions at the half way stages.

INTRODUCTION

Yesterday, when all the day fixtures in the Royal London Cup had reached their half-way stage I covered what was happening and made predictions for each result. Today I complete the story be revealing the results and mentioning noteworthy efforts from the second half of each game.

YESTERDAY’S ROYAL LONDON CUP MATCHES

This is how it all unfolded:

Derbyshire v Northamptonshire – Derbyshire 268-6, Northamptonshire 215 (43.5 overs), Derbyshire won by 53 runs
I backed Derbyshire to win this one because of the fightback they had made in the latter stages of their innings. This one was more one sided even than the margin suggests. At one point Northants were 112-8 before a lower order fightback gave them a hint of respectability. There were four wickets for young medium pacer Alex Hughes, three for Van Beek and two for Rampaul. Luke Procter scored an unbeaten 50, but no other Northants batter merits a mention.
Warwickshire v Yorkshire – Warwickshire 270-8 Yorkshire 270-9 TIED!!
I got this one wrong, expecting Yorkshire to chase them down. At 112-6 it looked a certain win for Warwickshire, but Jonny Tattersall (79) and Tim Bresnan (89) staged a revival that very nearly won it for Yorkshire. England all-rounder Chris Woakes took 3-47 and the hugely promising teenager Henry Brookes took 3-50. Kiwi veteran Jeetan Patel was the most economical with 2-41.
Durham vLeicestershire – Leicestershire 233-9, Durham 234-4 (45.3 overs) Durham won by six wickets
This was an easy call after that poor Leicestershire innings, and an easy win for Durham in the end. Cameron Bancroft scored 118 not out, and received support from various of the Durham order. Dieter Klein and Gavin Griffiths each had a couple of wickets.
Hampshire v Glamorgan – Glamorgan 292-9 Hampshire 293-3 (41.5overs) Hampshire won by seven wickets.
I had this down as a Glamorgan win. In the event Hampshire made it look very easy indeed, and Glamorgan’s future in this competition, even after just two matches looks bleak – they failed horrendously to chase in their first game and failed just as epically to defend in this one. Tom Alsop, a 23 year-old wicketkeeper batter opened the Hampshire innings and was 130 not out off 115 baals when they completed the win. Former England man James Vince scored 95 off 78 balls to put Hampshire in complete control of the chase. I will draw a veil over the Glamorgan bowling figures.
Nottinghamshire v Lancashire – Nottinghamshire 417-7, Lancashire 406-9 Nottinghamshire won by 11 runs
I called this one correctly. Lancashire made a tremendous effort, and until the dismissal of their captain Dane Vilas (166 off 100 balls) an extraordinary victory appeared to be on the cards. In the end that Nottinghamshire total was just enough. Steven Croft scored 110 off 82 balls. James Pattinson with 5-61 off his 10 overs was the star of the bowlers – if he had gone at the same rate as his colleagues Lancashire would have got home with time to spare (approximately an over and a half if you care to do the calculation).
Somerset v Kent – Somerset 358-9, Kent 94 (27 overs) – Somerset won by 264 runs
With that total on the board I called this one in Somerset’s favour, but even I was surprised by the margin of victory. AfterS had piled up their huge total Kent needed a good start to stay in the contest. Unfortunately for them they got the reverse, as Craig Overton followed his 66 by taking three early wickets (he would add two more before the end, finishing with 5-18) and Kent were reeling at 25-4. Thereafter Kent tried to salvage a hint of respectability and failed. The margin was a record for one first class county over another in limited overs cricket (various previous limited overs competitions featured minor county sides, so the distinction is needed). A detailed analysis of this match can be found here.
Essex v Middlesex – Middlessex 366-8, Essex 328 (49.2 overs) Middlesex won by 38 runs
Again a big enough total to predict the final outcome with some confidence, but Essex put up a fine fight. Varun Chopra made 127 off 127 balls and Tom Westley 77 off 59 balls. For Middlesex Nathan Sowter, a 26 year-old legspinner with little previous experience of top level cricket took 6-62 from 9.2 overs

I called five of these matches correctly and two wrongly, making my overall record of predictions in this competition now eight right and four wrong. As with the first round there was a “day/night” match which was not far enough advanced for me to make a prediction on at the time:

Surrey v Sussex – Surrey 274-9, Sussex 278-8 (48.1 overs)
This was a humdinger of a match. Surrey’s problem in their innings was that no-one went to a really big score – Foakes led the way with 64 and Will Jacks managed 56, while Mir Hamza rook 4-43. Tom Curran (3-37 from 10) and Gareth Batty (2-39 from 10) bowled excellently for Surrey, Morne Morkel and Rikki Clarke were respectable, but the fifth set of 10 overs let Surrey down, as Plunkett (6 overs, 1-57) and Jacks (4 overs for 26) both bowled very poorly. Sussex’s matchwinner was David Wiese (92 not out), while Luke Wright scored 69.

The first set of fixtures provided a lot of very one-sided games, but no one could complain about the fare on offer this time round – fine cricket featured in most if not all of the matches and several were very close, including the incredible tie between Yorkshire and Warwickshire.

PHOTOGRAPHS

My usual sign off…

The Royal London Cup Round 2 Fixtures

A look at what is happening in the Royal London Cup, complete with predictions. Also some of my photopgraphs.

INTRODUCTION

The seven daytime Royal London Cup Fixtures taking place today have all reached the halfway stage, and as in this post, where I was 3/5 on predictions I will be essaying predictions as to the outcomes of these fixtures, as well as drawing attention to noteworthy efforts within the matches. Wihtou further ado…

THE ROYAL LONDON CUP 19/4

Derbyshire v Northamptonshire – Derbyshire 268-6 from 50 overs
This total represents a fightback by Derbyshire, as at one stage they were 137-5. This and the fact that the sides batting first all won their games last time out influences me to call this one in Derbyshir’s favour. Billy Godleman played the anchor role for Derbyshire with 87 off 124 balls, while Matt Critchley scored 64 not out off 51 balls, having come in at 137-5. Blessing Muzurabani picked up 2-54 and Jason Holder 2-62.
Warwickshire v Yorkshire – Warwickshire 270-8 from 50 overs
Various Warwickshire players got starts, but only Tim Ambrose (77 off 108 balls) made a really significant score. Matthew Pillans added another three wickets to the five he took in the opening game, while Bresnan and Poysden took two each. I would expect Yorkshire to make it two wins out of two – all it will take is two of their top order play significant innings.
Durham v Leicestershire – Leciestershire 233-9 from 50 overs
Leicestershire were 112-7 at the low water mark of their innings, so this score represents a fight back. However, although it runs contrary to my hopes given their awful choice of captain I expect Durham to win this fairly easily and make it two wins from two. Tom Taylor made 59 off 63 balls and Dieter Klein, also mainly a bowler, scored 46 off 71 balls in the latter stages. Brydon Carse took 3-58, while Liam Trevaskis had 2-37 from his full 10 overs.
Hampshire v Glamorgan – Glamorgan 292-9 overs
This is a tough one to call – Glamorgan’s total looks quite good, but none of their batters got more than 68 (achieved by David Lloyd off 62 balls and Graham Wagg off 57 balls). Kyle Abbott took 3-47 and Liam Dawson 2-57. Bearing in mind the successes of sides batting first so far this season I am going to predict a win for Glamorgan.
Notinghamshire v Lancashire – Nottinghamshire 417-7 from 50 overs
A monster score by Nottinghamshire. Cricket is a glorious game precisely because it is wonderfully unpredictable, but it will the story of the day if Lancashire chase these down. My prediction is therefore a Nottinghamshire victory. Joe Clarke made 139 off 99 balls at the top off the order, Ben Slater hit 74 off 82, Tom Moores 74 off 39 and Luke Fletcher 46 not out off 17 at the end. Graham Onions managed 2–70 from his 10, quite an achievement in such a huge score, and Saqib Mahmood, a young medium pacer, collected 2-88 from his 10.
Somerset v Kent – Somerset 358-9 from 50 overs
A big total for Somerset, and one that I confidently expect them to defend. Tom Banton, a 20 year old keeper-batter scored 107 off 79 balls at the top of the Somerset order, Lewis Gregory contributed 51 from 45, and Craig Overton scored 66 not out off 36 at the death. Stevens, Podmore, Klassen and Milnes each took two wickets, the veteran Stevens managing to go for only 50 from his ten overs.
Essex v Middlesex – Middlesex 366-8 from 50 overs
A great effort by Middlesex. Dawid Malan led off with 95 from 102 balls, and Nick Gubbins with 56 off 57 kept things going when Middlesex might have got into trouble, before George Scott, a 23 year old right hander, scored 63 off just 28 balls to give the total a late boost. Peter Siddle took 3-71 and Dan Lawrence’s leg spin brought him 2-63 – his batting will be needed later if Essex are to get anywhere near chasing this total down. I expect Middlesex to win this one, especially given that teams batting first have done so well so far this season.

Thus my calls in these games are: Derbyshire, Yorskhire, Durham, Glamorgan, Nottinghamshire, Somersert and Middlesex. The Surrey v Sussex match is at too early a stage for a prediction as it is a day/night game. Surrey are 206-4 in the 40th over. Will Jacks made 56 for Surrey, Foakes has 41 not out and Pope, just starting to hit the launchpad, is 32 not out. None the Sussex bowlers have really noteworthy figures. If Foakes and Pope keep going and propel Surrey to something in the vicinity of 300 they will be favourites, while if Sussex keep Surrey below about 270 they will have a good chance. Update – Pope has just gone for 33, making 209-5, swinging things back towards Sussex. Rikki Clarke has joined Foakes.

PHOTOGRAPHS

My usual sign off…

How My Predictions Panned Out

A look at my predictions in yesterday’s Royal London Cup matches, some important links and some of my photographs.

INTRODUCTION

In yesterday’s post I ventured predictions on the outcomes of the five Royal London Cup matches that had reached their half way stage at the time I was posting. Today, with the next Royal London Cup fixtures taking place tomorrow I am going to use the main body of this post to reveal the actual outcomes of yesterday’s matches.

PREDICTION VERSUS FACT – HOW I DID

Some people (especially fans of whyevolutionsistrue) will recognize that this section heading is a riff on the title of Jerry Coyne’s second popular bestseller, Faith Versus Fact. I will start with the two matches I called incorrectly:

Gloucestershire v Surrey – Gloucestershire 235, Surrey 88, Gloucestershire won by 147 runs
An unconscionable collapse by Surrey. The two bowlers who did the principal damage, slow left-armer Tom Smith with 3-7 and medium pacer Chris Liddle with 3-17 do not have overall records that suggest them to be destroyers, so it is hard to understand how Surrey who appeared to have done the hard work by restricting their oppponents to 235 could make such an almighty hash of their own of batting.

Essex v Glamorgan – Essex 326-7, Glamorgan 146, Essex won by 180 runs
I made my prediction for this one based on the ridiculous scoring that had happened during the championship game at Cardiff a few days earlier. Unfortunately, having demonstrated in that one that they cannot bowl or catch, Glamorgan this time showed that they cannot handle pressure, with only a late 36 from Marchant de Lange reducing the margin to under 200 runs (he came in at 82-7). Siddle and Bopara did good work with the ball for Essex.

Now for the ones I called correctly:

Durham v Northamptonshire – Durham 342-5, Northamptonshire 270
A comfortable enough win, although one of the less one-sided results of the day. Jason Holder (86) and Alex Wakely (66)_batted fairly well, but no one else did. For Durham 20 year old medium pacer Matty Potts took 4-62, 26 year old medium-fast bowler Matt Salisbury 3-51 and 19 year old slow left armer Liam Trevaskis partially redeemed himself for his blob with 2-65.

Yorkshire v Leicestershire – Yorkshire 379-7, Leciestershire 166
An obvious call, but not even I was expecting the final result to be this much of a thrashing. Four of Leciestershire’s batters got into the twenties, but the highest score for them was Cosgrove‘s 42. South African born fast bowler Matt Pillans took 5-29, England left-arm medium pacer David Willey had 2-26 and legspinner Josh Poysden took 2-26 to outshine England man Adil Rashid who went wicketless.

Lancashire v Worcestershire – Worcestershire 367, Lancashire 242
Even more one-sided than the final margin suggests, given that Lancashire were 191-8 at one point – a tail wag from Steven Croft (32 not out), Jimmy Anderson (4) and Matthew Parkinson (10) assisted them. The real batters failed to provide a single really major innings between them – five of the top six got into the twenties, but the top score was a mere 54, from (I hope) ex-England man Keaton Jennings. The wickets were widely shared around, with no one having outstanding bowling figures.

That leaves the match that I did not call as it was too early, which was:

Kent v Hampshire – Hampshire 310-9, Kent 220
While saying it was too early to attempt to call this one I also said that if Hampshire could get up around the 300 mark I would make them favourites, while if Kent held them to about 250 I would make them favourites. The first scenario happened, and Hampshire duly won, but there is no way be sure (especially given that every side that batted first won on the day, and that batting first tends to be even more advantageous when floodlights come into play) that Kent would have been successful chasing the lower total. Therefore I do not claim this as a correct call but also do not accept it as a wrong call – I said it was too early to call, and I hold to that. For Hampshire Sam Northeast (ex of Kent) scored 105 not out, while List A debutant Matt Milnes took 5-79 for Kent. For Kent Zak Crawley top scored with 49, while the margin was reduced to double figures rather than treble by the lower-order efforts of Stevens (30), Podmore (40) and Milnes (26). Chris Wood, Kyle Abbott and bits ‘n’pieces man Liam Dawson each took two wickets.

Thus I was right with three predictions out of five. These results demosntrate the danger of formulaic thinking – many one-day captains on winning the toss put their opponents in without even thinking about it, but every single team who batted first on this day ended up victorious.

LINKS AND PICTURES

First, a teaser from brilliant, although I make it more difficult than they did by removing the multi-choice element:

To lead into my usual sign off we have a selection of closely related pieces, starting with two from Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK.

I do not often link to Newspaper front pages, but this from the Mirror, which I saw by way of twitter (which I have formatted as a link so that you can read the article) had to be included.

Finally, for those of my readers who are UK Citizens there is a petition about this issue on the official government petitions site, which I urge you to join me in signing and sharing – screenshot/link below:

Now for today’s photographs:

P1220901 — A preview of my birthday present – on display in the shop. It has a terabyte of storage.

P1220915 — Good to see a polinator at work.

P1220917 — This creature appears to be missing a leg – I see only seven and it sjurely have eight.

The Royal London Cup and England’s World Cup Squad

My thoughts on the early stages of the Royal London Cup and England’s world cup 2019 squad.

INTRODUCTION

The day games in today’s first set of Royal London Cup Fixtures are now at the half way stage (Hampshire v Kent is a day/night game, and did not start until 1PM), and I shall be looking at what has happened thus far and venturing predictions as to the outcomes. Also England released their world cup 2019 squad today and I shall be looking at that. We being with…

THE ROYAL LONDON CUP

This is a 50 overs a side tournament, and is being played over the next month. Today sees the opening fixtures of the tournament and the situations, with all matches bar one at the innings break are:

Durham v Northamptonshire – Durham 342-5 from 50 overs
A good score for Durham, with Bancroft making 151 not out and Michael Richardson 102. The Northanmptonshire bowlers gave away almost two and half overs worth of extra deliveries. Bizarrely Luke Procter, the most economical Northamptonshire bowler with 1-33 from 7 overs did not get to bowl his full allocation. Although I would prefer to Durham lose every game at present due to their choice of captain this is a total that should be defensible – it will require a huge effort for Northamptonshire to get them, so my predicted result here is victory for Durham.

Yorkshire v Leicestershire – Yorkshire 379-7 from 50 overs
A big score for Yorkshire. Gary Ballance top scored with 156 off 133 balls, youngster Harry Brook made 103 off 105, wicketkeeper Jonny Tattersall made 58 off 29 to boost the total at the end. The Ballance/ Brook efforts are notable because Yorkshire had lost three early wickets when they came together. Tom Taylor took 3-57 (the first three to fall) from his 10 overs, a notable achievement in such a score. Yorkshire really should be able to defend this total, so my prediction is victory for them.

Lancashire v Worcestershire – Worcestershire 367 all out from 49.1 overs
A big total from Worcestershire. I do not set as much store by using all of the 50 overs as some, so I am not that bothered by Worcs being all out before the end of their allocation. Hamish Rutherford and Daryl Mitchell made centuries for Worcestershire and keeper/batter Ricky Wessels a rapid 72 (he does not share his father Kepler’s approach to batting). Matt Parkinson, a 22 year old legspinner, took 5-51 for Lancashire, a very fine achievement particularly in view of the size of the Worcs total. Worcestershire should win this with that total on the board and that is my prediction.

Gloucestershire v Surrey – Gloucestershire 235 all out off 47.1 overs
A poor looking total for Gloucestershire in the match between the county of my birth and the one where I lived for most of formative years. Chris Dent made 75 and wicketkeeper Gareth Roderick 74, but no one else did anything significant. Rikki Clarke took 4-43 and Tom Curran celebrated his world cup call-up with 3-29 from 9 overs. Frankly Surrey should knock these off no bother at all, and such is my predicted result.

Glamorgan v Essex – Essex 326-7 from 50 overs
A good looking total for Essex, but definitely chaseable in this day and age (especially given the scoring in the recent championship game at Cardiff). Varun Chopra played the anchor role with 111 off 133, while Tom Westley hit 69 off 54 and Dan Lawrence 56 off 37. Sir Alastair Cook scored 40 off 41 to give the innings a solid start. Graham Wagg with 2-49 and Michael Hogan 2-52 were the pick of the bowlers. Given the nature of the Cardiff pitch so far this season I back Glamorgan to chase this one down.

Kent v Hampshire – Hampshire 183-3 after 32.4 overs
Hampshire look to be going quite well here. James Vince made 56, while Sam Northeast and Rilee Rossouw are 38 not and 37 not respectively and seem to be going well. Matt Milnes has 2-24 from 5 overs for Kent. It is too early to attempt to call this one, but if Hampshire have a good finish to their innings and get somewhere close to 300 they will have a chance, while if Kent bowl well and restrict Hampshire to somewhere in the region of 250 they will be favourites.

ENGLAND’S WORLD CUP SQUAD

Here courtesy of Test Match Special’s twitter account is England’s World Cup Squad:

I rate Sam Curran a better cricketer than his brother, and would prefer to see him in the squad, but I have no huge problems with the selected squad, which has all bases other than slow left-arm spin covered. Liam Dawson, who some might conisder to fill that niche is not good enough in either department. If Liam Trevaskis develops his bowling to set alongside his promising batting (albeit he made a blob today) he may come to fill that particular niche in future, but unless you are prepared to select a non-batting spinner in Jack Leach for limited overs cricket there is no one else at present. I am glad that the selectors have not rushed the newly qualified Jofra Archer straight into the squad – a world cup is not the place for a player to be starting their international career.

PHOTOGRAPHY

My usual sign off…

All-Time Squads – England

I select an England squad from players I have witnessed and a true all-time England squad.

INTRODUCTION

This is the start of a new series which will appear on this blog periodically in between posts about other things. I will pick two squads in each of these posts – one restricted to players whose performances I have witnessed live and one true all-time squad, using my considerable knowledge of cricket history. I will also be including a few other things after the main body of the post. We will being the main part of the post with…

ENGLAND SQUAD FROM PLAYERS I HAVE WITNESSED LIVE

To begin with we need an opening pair. I refuse to consider those who went on the two English rebel tours to South Africa. The serious contenders left are:

Mike Atherton – 7,.728 runs at 37.69 from 115 test matches. A fine record, though that average was reduced by his encounters with Glenn McGrath who seriously had the wood on him.
Alec Stewart – 8,463 test runs at 39.54 from 133 test matches. These already impressive figures conceal the fact that Stewart the specialist batter (the role in which I would be using him) averaged 47, while Stewart the keeper averaged 34.
Marcus Trescothick – 76 test matches produced 5,825 runs at 43.79. An attack-minded left hander, Trescothick hit the ground running at Test level with 66 against the West Indies on debut, and until mental health issues caused his premature retirement from international cricket he went from strength to strength.
Andrew Strauss – 100 test matches, 7,037 runs at 40.91. An consistent opener who did even better as captain than he did in the ranks.
Alastair Cook – England’s all time leading test run scorer, with 12,472 at 45.35, he started his test career with a fifty and a century against India and ended it 12 years later with a fifty and a century against India.

Of these five I can accommodate three in my squad (an opening pair and a reserve opener), and my choice, with due respect to Messrs Atherton and Trescothick is to go for Alastair Cook and Alec Stewart (mainly defensive left hander and more attacking right hander) as my first choice opening pair and Strauss as the reserve opener. It is a close call between Strauss and Trescothick, but Strauss’ captaincy experience gives him an edge.

My designated number three bat and captain is Michael Vaughan. Number three has traditonally been a problem position for England, but Vaughan was magnificent there – his only rival in my lifetime is Jonathan Trott, but since I want Vaughan as captain he gets the nod. When it comes to picking three middle-order batters there is an embarrassment of riches to choose from. There are two left-handers, David Gower and Graham Thorpe and a phalanx of right-handers including Kevin Pietersen, Ian Bell, Joe Root and Paul Collingwood who all did fine things at test level. I can only select three, two to be in the first XI and one as cover, and my choices are Joe Root, David Gower and Kevin Pietersen.

With all due respect to Andrew Flintoff and Ben Stokes who have both had great achievements at the highest level there is only one candidate for the allrounders role in my view and that is Ian Botham.

There are four potential candidates for the wicketkeepers slot, of whom I need to select two since I do not intend using Stewart in that role. My four candidates are:

Jack Russell – a magnificent keeper, but his test batting average of 27.10 was a little on the low side.
Matt Prior – there was never a question about his batting skills, but his keeping took a while to develop, though he became very good indeed.
Jonny Bairstow – A fine attacking batter and a good keeper, but rarely able to combine the two at test level
Ben Foakes – A magnificent keeper and averaging over 40 in his brief test career so far.

It will be considered controversial in some circles to give the nod to someone still in the early stages of their career, but my choices are Ben Foakes as first choice keeper and Matt Prior as reserve.

I have now selected a total of ten players, and a regulation squad would be 16, so I have six places available to fill the squad. For quick bowlers I go for James Anderson, Stuart Broad, Simon Jones and Steve Harmison. Phil Tufnell was too inconsistent and Ashley Giles not really good enough, so my choices for the spinners slots are Monty Panesar and Graeme Swann.

Thus my squad of sixteen is:

Alec Stewart
Alastair Cook
Andrew Strauss (reserve opener)
*Michael Vaughan
David Gower
Kevin Pietersen
Joe Root
Ian Botham
+Ben Foakes
+Matt Prior
James Anderson
Stuart Broad
Steve Harmison
Simon Jones
Graeme Swann
Monty Panesar

The likely first XI, assuming a pitch that does not favour any particular type of bowling would be: Stewart, Cook, *Vaughan, Root, Gower, +Foakes, Botham, Swann, Broad, Anderson and Harmison, with Kevin Pietersen just missing the final cut in favour of Root (Gower’s lefthandedness works to his advantage).

THE ALL TIME SQUAD

For this one I start with the greatest of all opening pairs, Jack Hobbs and Herbert Sutcliffe. In addition to being one half of the greatest of all opening pairs Herbert Sutcliffe’s averages suggest, as does everything ever written about him, a big match temperament par excellence – 52.02 in first class cricket, 60.73 in all test cricket and in the cauldron of The Ashes, 66.85. As reserve opener I select W G Grace, reckoning that his test batting average (32.29) was reduced both by the pitches he played on and the fact that he was already 32 when he played his first test match in 1880, and his career at that level lasted until within a couple of months of his 51st birthday. My remaining choices for batting slots are Joe Root (captain), Denis Compton, Walter Hammond and Frank Woolley (the latter two more than handy bowlers as well as great fielders, and Woolley a left-hander). For the wicketkeepers I opt for Les Ames as first choice and Ben Foakes as reserve. Ian Botham retains his place as designated all-rounder. For the bowlers I retain Anderson, and augment his presence with Fred Trueman, Syd Barnes (189 wickets at 16.43 from just 27 matches) and George Lohmann (112 wickets in 18 test matches at an eye-popping 10.75). My two players selected as spinners are Hedley Verity (slow-left arm) and Jim Laker (off-spin).

Thus my squad list reads:

Jack Hobbs
Herbert Sutcliffe
W G Grace (reserve opener)
Denis Compton
*Joe Root
Walter Hammond
Frank Woolley
+Les Ames
+Ben Foakes
Ian Botham
Fred Trueman
Syd Barnes
George Lohmann
James Anderson
Jim Laker
Hedley Verity

The first XI in batting order, assuming the pitch does not justify either two specialist spinners or an all-seam attack is: Hobbs, Sutcliffe, Compton, *Root, Woolley, +Ames, Botham, Lohmann, Laker, Trueman and Barnes. I select Laker ahead of Verity as the lone specialist spinner because Woolley was a good enough slow-left armer to have taken 10 wickets in a test match and Compton could bowl slow left-arm wrist spin.

A BIT OF NEWS

Today as part of my continuing recovery from cancer I attended a physio session at Tapping House, and it went very well. I handled all four of the exercises I did today reasonably well, and my breathing behaved itself. It is a nice small group, and the setting is good.

PICTURES

My usual sign off…

	Thomas on World T20 Cup Underway
	Anna on World T20 Cup Underway
	London Underground t… on Project Piccadilly
	Thomas on All Time XIs – Detective…
	Anna on All Time XIs – Detective…