How My Predictions Panned Out

A look at my predictions in yesterday’s Royal London Cup matches, some important links and some of my photographs.

INTRODUCTION

In yesterday’s post I ventured predictions on the outcomes of the five Royal London Cup matches that had reached their half way stage at the time I was posting. Today, with the next Royal London Cup fixtures taking place tomorrow I am going to use the main body of this post to reveal the actual outcomes of yesterday’s matches.

PREDICTION VERSUS FACT – HOW I DID

Some people (especially fans of whyevolutionsistrue) will recognize that this section heading is a riff on the title of Jerry Coyne’s second popular bestseller, Faith Versus Fact. I will start with the two matches I called incorrectly:

Gloucestershire v Surrey – Gloucestershire 235, Surrey 88, Gloucestershire won by 147 runs
An unconscionable collapse by Surrey. The two bowlers who did the principal damage, slow left-armer Tom Smith with 3-7 and medium pacer Chris Liddle with 3-17 do not have overall records that suggest them to be destroyers, so it is hard to understand how Surrey who appeared to have done the hard work by restricting their oppponents to 235 could make such an almighty hash of their own of batting.

Essex v GlamorganEssex 326-7, Glamorgan 146, Essex won by 180 runs
I made my prediction for this one based on the ridiculous scoring that had happened during the championship game at Cardiff a few days earlier. Unfortunately, having demonstrated in that one that they cannot bowl or catch, Glamorgan this time showed that they cannot handle pressure, with only a late 36 from Marchant de Lange reducing the margin to under 200 runs (he came in at 82-7). Siddle and Bopara did good work with the ball for Essex.

Now for the ones I called correctly:

Durham v NorthamptonshireDurham 342-5, Northamptonshire 270
A comfortable enough win, although one of the less one-sided results of the day. Jason Holder (86) and Alex Wakely (66)_batted fairly well, but no one else did. For Durham 20 year old medium pacer Matty Potts took 4-62, 26 year old medium-fast bowler Matt Salisbury 3-51 and 19 year old slow left armer Liam Trevaskis partially redeemed himself for his blob with 2-65. 

Yorkshire v Leicestershire Yorkshire 379-7, Leciestershire 166
An obvious call, but not even I was expecting the final result to be this much of a thrashing. Four of Leciestershire’s batters got into the twenties, but the highest score for them was Cosgroves 42. South African born fast bowler Matt Pillans took 5-29, England left-arm medium pacer David Willey had 2-26 and legspinner Josh Poysden took 2-26 to outshine England man Adil Rashid who went wicketless.

Lancashire v WorcestershireWorcestershire 367, Lancashire 242
Even more one-sided than the final margin suggests, given that Lancashire were 191-8 at one point – a tail wag from Steven Croft (32 not out), Jimmy Anderson (4) and Matthew Parkinson (10) assisted them. The real batters failed to provide a single really major innings between them – five of the top six got into the twenties, but the top score was a mere 54, from (I hope) ex-England man Keaton Jennings. The wickets were widely shared around, with no one having outstanding bowling figures.

That leaves the match that I did not call as it was too early, which was:

Kent v HampshireHampshire 310-9, Kent 220
While saying it was too early to attempt to call this one I also said that if Hampshire could get up around the 300 mark I would make them favourites, while if Kent held them to about 250 I would make them favourites. The first scenario happened, and Hampshire duly won, but there is no way be sure (especially given that every side that batted first won on the day, and that batting first tends to be even more advantageous when floodlights come into play) that Kent would have been successful chasing the lower total. Therefore I do not claim this as a correct call but also do not accept it as a wrong call – I said it was too early to call, and I hold to that. For Hampshire Sam Northeast (ex of Kent) scored 105 not out, while List A debutant Matt Milnes took 5-79 for Kent. For Kent Zak Crawley top scored with 49, while the margin was reduced to double figures rather than treble by the lower-order efforts of Stevens (30), Podmore (40) and Milnes (26). Chris Wood, Kyle Abbott and bits ‘n’pieces man Liam Dawson each took two wickets.

Thus I was right with three predictions out of five. These results demosntrate the danger of formulaic thinking – many one-day captains on winning the toss put their opponents in without even thinking about it, but every single team who batted first on this day ended up victorious.

LINKS AND PICTURES

First, a teaser from brilliant, although I make it more difficult than they did by removing the multi-choice element:

piechart

To lead into my usual sign off we have a selection of closely related pieces, starting with two from Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK

I do not often link to Newspaper front pages, but this from the Mirror, which I saw by way of twitter (which I have formatted as a link so that you can read the article) had to be included.

Mirror

Finally, for those of my readers who are UK Citizens there is a petition about this issue on the official government petitions site, which I urge you to join me in signing and sharing – screenshot/link below:

Rewilding petition

Now for today’s photographs:

P1220897P1220898P1220899P1220900

P1220901
A preview of my birthday present – on display in the shop. It has a terabyte of storage.

P1220902P1220903P1220904P1220905P1220906P1220907P1220910P1220911P1220912P1220913P1220914

P1220915
Good to see a polinator at work.
P1220917
This creature appears to be missing a leg – I see only seven and it sjurely have eight.
P1220918
A closer-up shot.

P1220919P1220920P1220921

 

India Demonstrate How Not To Polish Off an Innings

Some thoughts on the current test match, some mathematics, some climate change themed links and some photographs from an upcoming militgaria auction.

INTRODUCTION

Although my first and main focus in on the current test match between England and India I also have my usual assortment of other goodies.

SWITCHBACK RIDE AT THE OVAL

When England were 120-1 at one point yesterday it looked like they were making a solid if slow start. India then took control of the game, England finishing the day 198-7, with Jos Buttler looking to marshal the tail in a recovery act (the first time this millennium that an uninterrupted test match day in England has yielded less than 200 runs). When Rashid was out fairly early this morning to make it 214-8 the question was whether the Broad and Anderson could last long enough to see England to 250. Thanks to some crazy Indian tactics the final England wicket did not fall until the total had reached 332, Buttler top scorer with 87 and Broad a useful 38. Buttler was last out when it finally occurred to India that it might not be a good idea to allow him singles at will and set a field that necessitated improvisation if he wanted to farm the strike.

The “tactic” of concentrating all one’s efforts on the tailender and declining to make any effort to pressurise the senior batter is not one I have ever approved of, and today saw one of it’s many ignominious failures. 

Having failed yet again Jennings now surely has one innings left to save his test career. There are seven test matches for England, six overseas and one at home against recently elevated Ireland before the Aussies come calling, and it is those matches which can be used to bed in a new opening pair (it would be a major ask for an opener to make their debut against them) – and I do not see Jennings being one half of that pair. As I was writing this paragraph Stuart Broad picked up the first Indian wicket. Those who read my previous post know that I have my own highly unorthodox solution to the problem of who the new opening pair should be (the driver of the bus I travelled home from work on yesterday, who is a follower of this blog, commented approvingly on the controversial element of this, so I am not alone). 

If, as now seems to be one of two live possibilties (a draw and overall 3-1 being the other) England end this series with the scoreline 4-1 in their favour India will have chucked this match in the first part of day 2. Virat Kohli is a great player but on all available evidence he has precisely no aptitude for captaincy. In thirty years of being an avid cricket follower I cannot recall a finer demonstration of how not to polish off an innings.

TEASERS

First up solutions to the problems I set on Wednesday (all problems in this section come by way of brilliant.org):

WHICH STAR IS CLOSER?

astroproblem

First the answer:

Star answer

The blue star has changed relative position more than the red, hence it must be closer, while all the other stars are so far distant that they have not changed relative position. 

BULLETS

Bullets

The answer:

Bullet answer

Here is Brian Moehring’s solution:

BMbullets

NEW PROBLEMS

31 problem

Here is another problem:

squacubes

LINKS

Three closely related pieces here. 

  1. Richard Murphy brings news of a campaign victory – the BBC has admitted to getting its coverage of climate change wrong and has warned people that it is not necessary to give airtime to climate change deniers for the sake of balance. Here is the end of Murphy’s piece on this:
    Of course I am pleased.

    And massive credit to Rupert Read for achieving this.

    Next the BBC should stop platforming tax deniers.

    And those who will not disclose their funding.

  2. Rise for Climate – this is a new source of information about actions being taken to combat climate change – feel free to visit and sign up for emails as I have.
  3. Anna presents a detailed and very clearly laid out Q & A on the campaign the prevent the building a big new road through Trosa. An English version follows the Swedish.

PHOTOGRAPHS

These pictures all come from our militaria sale that will be happening on September 19th. Disclaimer: one of the items pictured is a relic from one of history’s vilest regimes – I show it because it is a remarkable specimen which has already attracted large amounts of interest.

2
Lot 2 – this dagger is definitely genuine – and will go for a lot of money.

2-a2-b2-d2-e2-f2-g2-h2-c2-i

10
Lot 10, this will be on the front cover of the catalogue.
51
Lot 51

51-a51-b51-c51-e51-f51-g51-d

231
Lot 231
402
Lot 402
406
Lot 406
405
Lot 405

405-d405-c405-b405-a

404-c
Lot 404

404-b404-a404

204
Lot 204

204-a204-b204-c

373
Lot 373
372
Lot 372

372-a372-b372-c372-d372-f372-e

407
Lot 407 – this uniform will bring the cujrtain down on the sale.

407-a407-b407-c

It’s time the BBC realised that the opposite of reasonable debate is not unreasoned extremism

An excellent piece by Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK. This piece was provoked by Rupert Read’s response to being invited by the BBC (to whom I refuse to give any of my money for reasons highlighted in this post and others) to debate with a climate change denier. As Read pointed out in his … Continue reading “It’s time the BBC realised that the opposite of reasonable debate is not unreasoned extremism”

An excellent piece by Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK. This piece was provoked by Rupert Read’s response to being invited by the BBC (to whom I refuse to give any of my money for reasons highlighted in this post and others) to debate with a climate change denier. As Read pointed out in his refusal there is no serious debate on this issue – the evidence is overwhelming, and by insisting on giving climate change deniers air-time the BBC are doing great harm. Referring to his own area of expertise Murphy also points out the regularity with which folk from the Tax Payers Alliance and the Institute of Economic Affairs are given air-time, with no scrutiny of them or their organizations (at a barest minimum such organizations should be required to state publicly where their funding comes from, and the BBC should display this information whenever one of their representatives is speaking). Please read the original in full and post comments there.

Source: It’s time the BBC realised that the opposite of reasonable debate is not unreasoned extremism

Marxism 2018: Martin Empson on Climate Change

My first post about Marxism 2018 – which has kicked off in fine style.

INTRODUCTION

The Marxism Festival is always one of the highlights of the year for me, and it got underway today. My train to London ran a bit late, but I was still at the venue in good time to do everything that I needed to before the first meeting. 

Double map, Kings CrossSt Pancras ISt Pancras IISt Pancras IIIRoundel

CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT DOES THE ANTHROPOCENE MEAN FOR REVOLUTIONARY STRATEGY

Just before I get on to covering this excellent meeting I wish to deal briefly with a related matter: Jeremy Corbyn has been getting stick in certain circles for choosing to use Prime Minister’s Questions this week to tackle Theresa May on the state of buses in Britain. He was right to take her to task on this topic, and she floundered hopelessly as she usually does, unable to answer the questions. Here are a couple of charts from nomisweb.co.uk that between them make quite clear the rightness of Corbyn on this issue, which I found by way of the twitter feed of somebody called David Ottewell

and with car journeys added to the chart:

That vast number of people using the car as their main mode of transport outside of London is a major problem in many ways, and is caused in large part by the scandalous state of bus services outside the capital. As a concrete example, King’s Lynn is the third largest town in Norfolk while Fakenham is a market town in the middle of Norfolk. The last bus out from King’s Lynn to Fakenham leaves Lynn at 5:40PM, while the last bus back from Fakenham to King’s Lynn leaves Fakenham at 5:30PM – and this is still a better bus service than most of Norfolk can count on.

The meeting began with an explanation of the term Anthropocene, and then covered some details about recent heat records:

Display IDisplay II

3E before Martin Empson meeting
The room in which my first meeting was taking place.

Book Display

Martin at the ready
Martin Empson preparing himself.

No To FrackingTimetable FCTimetable BCCover slide

Speaker and chair just before the start
Speaker Martin and chair Jasmine just before the start.

Fracking plus WindrushDump Trump

The chair introduces the meeting
Jasmine introduces Martin
Heatwave slide I
The first of six record temperatures set in a very short space of time to be shiown here.

Heatwave slide IIYerevan record

Quriyat min temp
This means that there was whole 24-hour period in which the temperature was never at any point less than 42.6 celsius in this location.

Pakistan 5o degrees

Colorado
A heat record set in the country with a climate change denier as president.
Heatwave slide - final
The final slide showing all the records.

After this the speaker went on to talk about the inadequacy of the provisions made at an important meeting in Paris, the demonstration that occurred in Paris at the same time as that meeting and to end with a message:

Climate Change meetingCC protest

Gas Platform
This is the largest floating object ever built by humans – an offshore gas platform owned by Shell.
System Change Not Climate Change
The ultimate message of this meeting.

There then followed an excellent discussion as people asked questions and made contributions, before Martin came back to tie everything together. This meeting was an excellent start to my Marxism 2018.

Camilla contributes from the floor
This young woman was to be the main speaker at the second meeting I attended, and her contribution from the floor in this one was excellent.
Martin summing up the meeting
Martin Emspon summing up.

LGBT+ Liberation

Save Trosa nature – Behåll och stärk Trosas natur

An excellent and important post from Anna, with some sp;lendid infogđraphics/memes/drawings – please read and share!

Annas Art - FärgaregårdsAnna

Läs detta före 9 januari 2018, så har du chansen att bidra till att bevara och stärka Trosas natur.

Read this before January 9 2018 of you want to participate in the efforts to save Trosa nature.


Du har antagligen redan läst att 2017 uppmätte de högsta medeltemperaturerna någonsin (sen vi människor klarat att mäta de värdena). I SvD uttalade sig professor Johan Rockström och sade följande: “Om vi ska kunna leverera på Parisavtalet får vi inte chansa. Om planetens förmåga att buffra våra utsläpp går ner måste vi minska våra utsläpp ännu snabbare.” Han sade också “Vad vi gör de kommande fem åren blir avgörande för klimatets framtid”.

You have probably already read about how 2017 was the warmest year ever since mankind started to measure temps. In the Swedish newspaper SvD the professor Mr Johan Rockström said “If we’re gonna live up to Paris agreement we can’t take…

View original post 371 more words

Anderson Joins 500 Club and Other Stuff

Jimmy Anderon’s 500th test wicket, some links, some puzzles and some photographs.

INTRODUCTION

As well as the title piece this post will feature links, pictures (items that will be going under the hammer at the end of September principally) and puzzles – including answers to a couple. 

ANDERSON JOINS 500 CLUB

As predicted by me in a previous post the third and final test match of the England v West Indies series has featured a moment of cricket history as James Anderson duly collected his 500th wicket in this form of the game. Among bowlers of anything other than spin Glenn McGrath leads the way overall with 563 (off-spinner Muralitharan’s 800 for Sri Lanka is the record, followed by leg-spinner Warne’s 709 for Australia). The two spinners have set marks that are not realistically within Anderson’s grasp but the 563 of McGrath is well and truly catchable. 

The historic moment came near the end of play yesterday, in the West Indies second innings (btw as I write this Anderson has increased his tally to 504) and it was a dismissal worthy of the occasion. He was denied in the West Indies first innings not by their batting (they managed a meagre 123 all out) but by a remarkable spell from Ben Stokes who finished that innings with figures of 6-22 – a test best for him. England led by 71, which looks like being decisive – the top score coming from Stokes (60). This combination of circumstances leads to me to finish this section with a raft of predictions/ hostages to fortune:

  1. The Brian Johnston champagne moment – James Anderson’s 500th test wick – 100% certain whatever happens in what is left of this match!
  2. Player of the match – Ben Stokes barring miracles.
  3. Player of the series – Ben Stokes – 100% nailed on.
  4. Match and series results: England win and take the series 2-1 – West Indies have just been dismissed for 177 in their second dig leaving England 107 to win – Anderson a career best 7-42 taking him to 506 test wickets.

LINKS

I am grouping my links in categories, starting with…

AUTISM

Just two links in this subsection, both from americanbadassactivists and both concerned with that hate group masquerading as charity Autism Speaks, or as Laina at thesilentwaveblog calls them A$.

NATURE

This subsection features four links:

  • First, courtesy of Wildlife Planet a piece titled “A Plant That Glows Blue In The Dark“.
  • With the unprecedented sight on weather maps of America and the Caribbean of three hurricanes poised to make landfall simultaneously (by now one of those, Irma, is already battering Cuba), A C Stark has prodcued a very timely piece whose title “Climate Change: The Elephant in the Room” is sufficient introduction.
  • This subsection closes with links to two posts from Anna. First we have Part 7 of her series about Butterflies in Trosa.

    The other post features a link to a video of a swimming sea eagle (only viewable on youtube) and a picture taken by Anna in which 11 sea eagles are visible.

POLITICS

This subsection includes one stand-alone link and four related links. The stand-alone link comes from Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK is titled “Scottish people deserve the data they need to decide, whatever their political persuasion.

My remaining four pieces concern a single individual who is widely tipped to be the next leader of the Conservative Party. It is this latter fact which has exposed him to intense scrutiny, resulting in the following collection about…

JACOB REES-MOGG

To set the scene we start with Richard Murphy of Tax Research UK’s piece simply titled “Jacob Rees-Mogg“. 

The second and third pieces in this sub-subsection both come courtesy of the Guardian:

A SEGUE LINK – A QUIZ

With apologies to those of my readers whose first language is not English, and who therefore cannot take on this quiz, I offer you courtesy of quizly a test on one of the biggest sources of grammatical mistakes in English, safe in the knowledge that my own score in said quiz can be equalled but not beaten:

PUZZLES

I appended a question to a link that featured the year 1729 in a recent post. This was the question:

The puzzle I am attaching to this is: which two famous mathematicians are linked by the number 1,729 and how did that link come about?

The two famous mathematicians linked by the number 1,729 are G H Hardy and Srinivasa Ramanujan. The link came about when Hardy visited Ramanujan in hospital during the latter’s final illness and mentioned the number of the cab in which he had travelled – 1,729 and went on to suggest that this was a very dull number. Ramanujan said in response “No Hardy, it is a very interesting number, the smallest that can be expressed as the sum of two cubes in two different ways”.

 The other puzzle I set in that post was this one from brilliant:

treasurehunt

If the statement on door 1 is true, then the treasure is behind door 2, which makes the statements on doors 2 and 3 both false = not acceptable.

If the statement on door 2 is true then the treasure is behind door 3, which makes both the other statements false = not acceptable.

If the statement on door 3 is true, then the statement on door 1 could also be true, making the statement on door 2 false – this scenario is acceptable.

Thus we open door 2 and collect the loot.

I finish by setting you another puzzle, again from brilliant, the 100th and last problem in their 100 Day Challenge, and a cracker:

SC100 - q

Don’t be intimidated by that maximum difficulty rating – it is not as difficult as the creators thought. Incidentally you still have a couple of days to answer the problems properly on that website should you choose to sign up – although it would be tough to them all in that time!

PICTURES

1
This is lot 1 in our next sale – the first of 200 lots of old military themed postcards. Can you guess which of the lots pictured here is on my radar as a potential buy?
329-a
Lot 329 (four images) – a fine volume when new but this copy is in terrible condition.

329-b329329-c

340
Lot 340
347
Lot 347 (two images)

347-a

341
Lot 341 (six images)

341-a341-b341-c341-d341-e

£2 - Trevithick 2
I picked up this coin in change at Morrison’s today and I took two photos of it, both of which I offer you to finish this post (it is only the Reverse that makes it interesting – the Obverse is the usual portrait of ludicrously over-privileged old woman).

£2 - Trevithick 1

 

Marxism 2017: Climate Change

An account of the three meetings at Marxism 2017 that focussed exclusively on climate change.

INTRODUCTION

Welcome to this latest post in my series about Marxism 2017. This post deals with three meetings from the event and also features some external links as well. This post features green body text because of the subject matter – headings still in red. This post features pictures in ’tiled mosaic’ form – to view them at full size left-click/ single finger push an image to open the gallery, and if you right-click/ two finger push you get a drop down menu that enables you to open a single image.

MEETING 1: FACING THE ANTHROPOCENE – JEFFREY HALL, SATURDAY – IAN ANGUS

The Jeffrey Hall is the second largest venue in the Institute of Education, with a seating capacity of 500. It was pleasingly full for Ian Angus’ talk about Facing the Anthropocene. This talk was accompanied by numerous slides. Here are the first few pictures:

From this start the speaker went on to define the anthropocene:

Before the Anthropocene the earth had seen five mass extinction events, and all evidence points to the fact that a sixth is upon us. Here are a few links to recent articles about this:

Now here are my remaining pictures from this meeting:

The website climateandcapitalism can be accessed here.

MEETING 2, SUNDA: A REDDER SHADE OF GREEN – MALET SUITE – IAN ANGUS

This was conducted in an informal style. Martin, chairing, asked Ian questions about his latest book (it is a good read btw) and Ian answered. After about half an hour questions were taken from the floor, and they were mainly excellent contributions. At the end of the meeting Ian signed copies of his book for those who were interested. Here are some photos:

Ian Angus and Martin EmpsonPostersPoster

Book
The book – the only one I purchased at Marxism 2017 (there were many others I looked at)

Martin Empson starts the meetingMartin asks Ian a questionMartin asking Ian a questionIan Angus speakingMartin Empson advertises the bookClimate Change poster

PART 3: BUILDING THE MOVEMENT AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE AFTER TRUMP WITHDRAWS FROM PARIS – SUZANNE JEFFERY

This meeting was in the session immediately after the second Ian Angus meeting, and before the closing rally. This was a really excellent meeting, with many people speaking from the floor about campaigns they were involved in, and the mood generally confident. Here are some photos:

Speaker and chair
Chair Jasmine and main speaker Suzanne before the meeting.
Jasmine introduces Suzanne
Jasmine opening the meeting.
Suzanne giving her talk
Suzanne giving her talk.

AFTERWORD

This post being about climate change and by extension nature I have decided to end with some links courtesy of Anna who has produced some excellent stuff about nature: